‘(Mis)forecasting the Future – why accurately forecasting Solar PV matters’ by Global Solar PV Brain TRUST

It’s almost like the well-known film Groundhog Day (German title ‘Und ewig grüßt das Murmeltier’) from 1993: In my almost 33 years as a solar entrepreneur, the development of solar energy has been massively underestimated over and over again in forecasts by various parties.

This has remained the case to this day, and so the IEA and IRENA (which was once founded to accelerate the development of renewable energies) continue to underestimate solar technology year after year. The same applies to the modellers who prepare the forecasts for the international climate reports. Here in Germany, the German government’s ‘advisory corona’ is also unable to incorporate the developments into its models in a way that is even remotely adequate. The whole thing is currently being repeated in the assessment of battery storage technology and is leading to billions of dollars in wrong decisions, including in the development of networks, etc.

The paper ‘(Mis)forecasting the Future – why accurately forecasting Solar PV matters’ now presented by the Global Solar PV Brain TRUST shows the possible causes and consequences, but also ideas for avoiding these mistakes. And the great economic and ecological opportunities for the further application of solar, wind and storage technologies.

As with the PV Think Tank, which is focused on Germany, I am working with the Global Solar PV Brain TRUST.

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